What is Guinnessometrics?
To hear about the leading role that fermentation has played in scientific discovery – including oxygen, hello! – and how a brewer found through repeated experimentation that large scale randomized trials are nothing to boast about, read W.S. Gosset and Some Neglected Concepts of Experimental Statistics: Guinnessometrics II, Journal of Wine Economics (Winter 2011)
Leading experimental economists, such as Steve Levitt and John List, have not grasped the point. See Ziliak’s Balanced versus Randomized Field Experiments in Economics: Why W.S. Gosset aka ‘Student’ Matters, Review of Behavioral Economics 1 (1, Jan. 2014). (Final) Balanced vs Randomized Field Experiments Ziliak Rev Behavioral Economics 2014
Some of our top biometricians stand committed to the flawed approach made rote by Fisher. See, for example, my essay in The Lancet and reply to Stephen Senn: The Validus Medicus and a New Gold Standard (The Lancet, 2010); Significant Errors – Reply to Stephen Senn (The Lancet, 2010)
Guinnessometrics can improve the precision, efficiency, and ethics of any statistically-based study, including field experiments in economics, medicine, and drug trials. See, for example, The Unprincipled Randomization Principle in Economics and Medicine, by Stephen T. Ziliak and Edward R. Teather-Posadas, is forthcoming in the Oxford University Press Handbook on Professional Economic Ethics (New York: OUP, 2014), edited by George DeMartino and Deirdre N. McCloskey. Here is the pdf: The Unprincipled Randomization Principle_ Ziliak Teather-Posadas_ Oxford (March 29 2014)
Read more about Gosset and Guinnessometrics in the Feb. 8, 2012 issue of The Washington Post, “Guinness’s Big Contribution to Economics Research;” in the Feb. 9, 2012 issue of Chicago Magazine, “Guinnessometrics: Saving Science and Statistics with Beer;” in the Feb. 8, 2012 “Recommended economics writing,” at The Economist; in “The Statistical Significance of Beer,” at Freakonomics; “Beer and Stats,” at The University of Michigan Press Blog; “We Know Now,” at The Irish Times, “In the News,” at the American Association of Wine Economists, and “Beerometrics: Econometrics and the Science of Beer,” at Beeronomics.
Pre-publication version reviewed by: Andrew Leonard, “Celebrate the History of Statistics: Drink a Guinness – How a Master Brewer Forged New Ground in the Quantitative Progress of Science,” Salon, Sept. 28, 2009; see also: The Economist, “Guinness is Good For You, If You’re a Statistician” (Sept. 28, 2009) and Mark Thoma’s Economist’s View, “250 Years of Clever Counting” (Sept. 27, 2009).
Tim Harford (aka “The Undercover Economist”), “Enlightened Research Fueled By The Dark Stuff,” Financial Times, Feb. 7, 2009.
Tim Harford, “Statistical Significance,” BBC Radio 4, “More or Less” program, interview, Feb. 2, 2009.
Significance article: “Statistical Significance on Trial,” by Stephen T. Ziliak: Matrixx v Siracusano and Student v Fisher _ Ziliak 2011
New article by Ziliak and McCloskey on the ethics of statistical significance and a recent Supreme Court case: Lady Justice v. Cult of Statistical Significance: Oomph-less Science and the New Rule of Law, forthcoming in the Oxford Handbook on Professional Economic Ethics (OUP, 2014), edited by G. DeMartino and D.N. McCloskey
Article (with D. N. McCloskey) on Gosset, Fisher, and Bayesian statistics in biology and especially medicine: “The Unreasonable Ineffectiveness of Fisherian Tests in Biology, and Especially in Medicine,” Biological Theory 4(1, 2009): 44-53. Konrad Lorenz Institute for Evolution and Cognition Research, The MIT Press.
Keynote Lecture: “Guinnessometrics: Lovely Day for a Regression,” European Historical Economics Society Conference, Guinness Storehouse, Dublin, Ireland, Sept. 3, 2011.
Read more at: The Cult of Statistical Significance: How the Standard Error Costs Us Jobs, Justice, and Lives (University of Michigan Press, 2008), by Stephen T. Ziliak and Deirdre N. McCloskey.
Read more at “Field Experiments in Economics: Comment on an Article by Levitt and List,” CREATES Research Paper 2011-25, by Stephen T. Ziliak. Aarhus University, Denmark, Center for Research in Econometric Analysis of Time Series.
And, by Stephen T. Ziliak and Deirdre N. McCloskey: “The Cult of Statistical Significance,” Proceedings of the Joint Statistical Meetings (American Statistical Association), Washington, DC, August 2009.